Words That Will Both Anger You and Save You
Understanding the true meaning of words is incredibly difficult. Witnessing the rapid decline in the value of Japanese people in the age of AI… I feel like I’m about to lose my mind.
A. Japan’s Fiscal Situation Is Approaching the Edge of a Cliff
Japan’s national debt has ballooned to more than 2.5 times its GDP.
Yet, many people still don’t feel the crisis as something close or personal.
If so-called “handout” policies—like abolishing the 1.03 million yen tax wall—continue, the day of fiscal collapse, or "X-Day," could truly be near.
B. The Bank of Japan’s Dilemma and the Limits of Raising Interest Rates
Although the policy interest rate has been raised to 0.5%, it’s insufficient to control inflation or stop the yen’s decline.
One major reason the BOJ can’t aggressively raise rates is that higher interest payments on government bonds would make it impossible to balance the national budget.
Another reason is the worsening financial state of the BOJ itself. After massive bond purchases, BOJ's current account balance has swelled to 530 trillion yen, and further rate hikes could result in BOJ running a deficit.
If the BOJ becomes insolvent, it will be seen as the government forcing its debt burden onto the central bank. This would lead to a loss of trust, selling of the yen, sharp depreciation, surging import prices, accelerated inflation, industrial decline, and public suffering.
C. What Happens If Japan Faces a Fiscal Collapse
The yen could crash, and even further interest rate hikes might not stop the crisis.
There’s a non-zero chance of emergency measures like deposit freezes or a “property tax” like those imposed after World War II.
Back then, the maximum property tax rate was an astonishing 90%, applied to savings, real estate, and more.
The government also “defaulted” on its wartime compensation obligations by offsetting them through taxes.
D. Record-High Spending and Continued Government Optimism
The general budget for fiscal year 2025 is a record-breaking 115 trillion yen.
Although new bond issuance is capped at 28 trillion yen, the fiscal structure still relies heavily on debt.
Prime Minister Ishiba, who once championed fiscal reconstruction, has shifted to large-scale spending ahead of elections.
The budget plan was revised in response to opposition demands, adding spending for tuition-free education and tax cuts.
Populist parties (like Kokumin and Reiwa) pushing for unfunded tax cuts are gaining dangerous popularity.
E. Natural Disasters or Global Economic Shifts Could Trigger a Collapse
Japan is vulnerable to catastrophic disasters:
Nankai Trough Megaquake (quadruple fault lines): approx. 220 trillion yen
Tokyo epicenter earthquake: approx. 95 trillion yen
Mount Fuji eruption (worst-case): approx. 10 trillion yen
→ Total: approx. 325 trillion yen, nearly three times the national budget.
In such cases, the government and BOJ may no longer be able to raise emergency funds.
Renewed U.S.-China conflict could also spark a trade recession, slashing tax revenue and worsening the fiscal crisis.
F. Japan Still Has Assets, But…
Japan’s household financial assets exceed 2,000 trillion yen.
If even a small portion of wealthier individuals—especially seniors—could contribute, fiscal reconstruction is possible.
Under the current medical system for the elderly, those with billions in assets still pay only 10% if their income is low.
It may be time to rethink contributions based not on age, but on actual asset holdings.
G. Unfair Systems Must Be Reformed
Some large corporations benefit from special tax breaks.
Investment income for the wealthy is taxed at around 20%, lower than income tax rates, resulting in an even lighter burden.
Religious institutions like temples and shrines are generally exempt from corporate, resident, and property taxes.
Category 3 pension members (mainly full-time homemakers) receive full pension benefits without paying premiums.
H. Small Contributions Can Make a Big Difference
There are about 7 million full-time homemakers. If each paid even 1,000 yen a month in premiums, it would generate 84 billion yen a year.
Understanding these realities and thinking about what each of us can do is vital.
I. Populist Politics That Ignore Sustainability and Indulge in Optimism Are Cornering Japan
Government projections assume high growth and low interest rates, resulting in overly optimistic forecasts.
This has prolonged the illusion that “growth will take care of debt,” leading to today’s debt-ridden nation.
To stop burdening future generations, we must face reality and take action now.
J. The Root Cause of This Situation—As Pointed Out by Former Education Ministry Official Kihei Maekawa
“Truth was defeated by falsehood. Integrity was defeated by dishonesty. Tolerance was defeated by arrogance. Wisdom was defeated by ignorance. Sanity was defeated by madness.
That’s what happened in the Hyogo gubernatorial election—and in every election in Japan.
This severe crisis of democracy is the fault of the media and the education system.”
Words That Will Both Anger You and Save You:
“Most of what you believe to be common sense is wrong. Become aware of that and change your actions. That is the only way to preserve your future.”