"What will become of a people who despise the truth?"
Japanese People "Know the Answer!" But They Just Love the Status Quo and Refuse to Take Action! They Simply Hate the Truth.
In 2024, China's annual new car sales exceeded 31 million units, accounting for 34.8% of the global market. That's nearly double the 15.9 million units sold in the United States. Japan's annual total of 4.42 million units is the equivalent of what China sells in less than two months.
The growth of new energy vehicles is astonishing. In China, this includes BEVs (Battery Electric Vehicles) and PHEVs (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles). Thanks to subsidies, sales increased about 30% year-on-year to 13 million units, now accounting for around 40% of the Chinese market. In the first two months of 2025, BEVs and PHEVs reportedly surged to make up over 60% of sales.
Meanwhile, the global production volume of Japan’s eight major passenger car manufacturers in 2024 declined by 6.6% year-on-year to 24.1 million units—the first drop in four years. Worldwide car production in 2024 increased slightly by 0.8% to 89.07 million units, with Japanese cars holding a global market share of 27%. However, Japan's domestic new car sales totaled only 4.42 million units, meaning a staggering 81.65% of the industry is dependent on overseas markets. This could easily be cut in half in the near future.
Why? Because Japanese cars are caught in the "Innovator's Dilemma," rapidly losing relevance in today's evolving market.
Reference:
The Innovator’s Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail
by Clayton M. Christensen
Several major Chinese EV startups released their February 2025 delivery numbers:
1st Place: XPeng Motors
XPeng sold 30,453 units in February, a 570% year-on-year increase, marking the fourth consecutive month of sales exceeding 30,000. The AI-powered EV sedan "P7+" and the first model in its affordable MONA series, "M03," drove the surge. Their self-driving tech and cost-performance strategy are proving effective.
2nd Place: Li Auto
Li Auto delivered 26,263 vehicles, down 12% from the previous month. It has launched the new pure EV model "i8," drawing attention for its future potential.
3rd Place: Leap Motor
Leap Motor sold 25,287 vehicles in February, a 285% increase year-on-year. Their SUV “B10” comes equipped with LiDAR and Qualcomm's Snapdragon chip, boosting its competitiveness as a smart EV.
4th Place: HIMA (Huawei-affiliated)
HIMA sold 21,517 vehicles in February, down 39% from the previous month. Its key brand “AITO,” jointly run with SERES, saw deliveries drop from about 22,000 in January to around 12,000.
5th Place: Xiaomi Auto
Tech giant Xiaomi sold over 20,000 vehicles. Its luxury EV "SU7 Ultra" starts at 529,900 yuan (approx. \11 million / ~$73,000), yet surpassed 10,000 pre-orders within two hours.
(Exchange rate used: 1 yuan = approx. \21)
Other notable mentions:
ZEEKR: ~14,000 units
NIO: ~13,200 units
BYD, China’s Largest Automaker, Leads Dramatically
In February alone, BYD sold 322,846 vehicles—2.6 times more than the same month last year. In 2024, BYD sold a total of 4,272,145 vehicles globally, overtaking Honda (3.81 million), Nissan (3.35 million), and Suzuki (3.25 million) for the first time.
BYD’s explosive growth began in 2021:
2020: 426,900 units
2021: ~740,000
2022: ~1.857 million
2023: ~3.024 million
2024: ~4.27 million
In contrast, even Toyota—still the world’s largest automaker—grew only 1.1x over the past five years. It took Toyota about 53 years to reach an annual production of 4.3 million units, while BYD did it in just 19 years (with little growth in the first 15).
The Real Issue: Other Chinese EV Startups Could Grow Just Like BYD
Currently, around 10 emerging Chinese EV companies each produce about 300,000 vehicles annually. It’s not unrealistic to imagine each growing 10x in five years, reaching 3 million units/year—potentially totaling 30 million units combined.
BYD alone is forecasted to reach 15 to 17 million units per year in five years—all EVs. Within just five years, China could be producing more than 45 million cars annually.
Trade wars, particularly with developed countries, are easy to foresee. But countries without domestic automakers are likely to welcome Chinese EV makers like BYD with open arms.
When that happens—five years from now—Japan may be the biggest loser outside of the U.S. and Europe, losing massive market share to these Chinese upstarts.
If Japanese Automakers Want to Survive...
They must catch up with the performance and quality (SDV transformation) of cutting-edge new economy EV makers—and still manage to cut prices in half while remaining profitable within three years.
This sense of urgency is everything. But instead, Nissan’s leadership has reportedly decided to keep all domestic factories. To me, this reeks of indecisiveness and incompetence. If Honda had merged with them, they likely would’ve dragged each other down.
And let’s not forget the one-time industry heavyweight, who enjoyed his “springtime of life” parading around with companions, shouting “Multi-pathway~~~!” That modern-day Urashima Tarō bears an unimaginably heavy burden of blame.