The Dreadful Village Society’s Evil Termite Bureaucracy is Destroying the Future!
Strangely enough, both Japanese politicians and high-ranking bureaucrats seem to have a deep fondness for taxi companies (which employ about 240,000 people in Japan, accounting for only 0.35% of the country’s workforce). Even when ride-sharing services like Uber were introduced, they were only allowed for taxi companies, leading to a complete failure! Now, Japan’s robotaxi trials are also being conducted exclusively by a taxi company—Nihon Kotsu.
Japan’s robotaxi initiative is primarily aimed at addressing driver shortages in taxi companies, cutting labor costs, and reducing the already minimal number of fatal "roadside lying-down accidents" (only 13 per year, which accounts for 0.48% of all 2,663 traffic fatalities).
Japanese politicians and high-ranking bureaucrats fail to grasp that AI-powered robotaxis represent a major issue that could determine the nation's fate. There’s a strong possibility that they don’t consider the interests of the people at all. Their outdated minds are completely out of touch! Let’s analyze this situation based on data from today's Nikkei newspaper.
Driverless Taxis to Hit the Streets of Tokyo!
Nihon Kotsu and the company behind the taxi-hailing app GO have partnered with U.S. company Waymo to introduce 25 self-driving taxis. The trials will take place in seven central wards of Tokyo.
The planned rollout involves:
Collecting geographic data through human-driven taxis.
Transitioning to system-driven taxis with a driver still in the seat.
Offering ride services with a human assistant on board.
Ultimately, achieving full driverless operation.
This entire process is expected to take three years—whew!
According to the article, "If the technology advances, we might see robotaxis on Tokyo’s streets by 2028."
The main motivations for introducing robotaxis in Japan include alleviating taxi shortages and reducing labor costs (which account for 70% of taxi operating expenses). However, Nihon Kotsu’s Kawabe emphasizes that "safety improvements" are the top priority.
In 2024, taxis were involved in 46 fatal accidents, with about 30% (13 cases) caused by taxis running over drunk individuals lying on the road. The hope is that robotaxis will eliminate these types of accidents.
A Swiss Re insurance company study found that Waymo’s self-driving vehicles resulted in 88% fewer property damage accidents and 92% fewer injury accidents compared to human-driven cars. This data serves as strong evidence of robotaxis' safety potential.
The Three Barriers to Self-Driving Technology Adoption
Technological Barriers
While autonomous vehicles can already drive safely in most conditions, Waymo’s robotaxis still require improvement in areas like responding to emergency vehicles and navigating intersections without traffic signals.
Economic Barriers
Developing self-driving technology requires massive investments. Waymo has already spent over 1.5 trillion yen ($10 billion) on development. GM even halted its autonomous driving plans due to poor cost-effectiveness. The challenge now is how much costs can be reduced through mass production.
Social Acceptance Barriers
A Nomura Research Institute survey found that few people are eager to use autonomous vehicles. However, increased exposure to the technology could help more people feel comfortable with it over time.
How Japan’s Future Compares to Global Robotaxi Leaders
Waymo’s robotaxis currently cost about 100 million yen ($666,666) per unit, and cost reductions through mass production will be crucial.
Nihon Kotsu has stated that achieving fully autonomous taxis in Tokyo is a "trial-and-error challenge," but they hope to make it work within three years (by 2028). Expanding to regional cities like Toyohashi will likely take another three years (around 2031).
Waymo launched its robotaxi service in Phoenix, Arizona, in 2020, meaning Japan is already five years behind. This year, Japan is only starting trials with a mere 25 vehicles in a very limited area. Japan’s approach fails to recognize that AI-powered robotaxis depend on massive amounts of data. Even if everything goes as planned, Tokyo will be eight years behind the U.S. and nine years behind China.
Additionally, Japanese car manufacturers have virtually no AI development capabilities. There are concerns that Japan may become entirely dependent on foreign technology once again. While some hope that Toyota and other domestic automakers will step up, there’s little sign of enthusiasm from them.
Robotaxis in Japan are still far from becoming mainstream. However, they are gradually making progress, and a future where robotaxis blend seamlessly into Tokyo’s streets might eventually arrive—once technology, cost, and societal acceptance align.
Comparing Japan with Global Robotaxi Leaders
Tesla plans to begin robotaxi trials in 2025 using FSD Version 14 on current Model Y vehicles. By 2026-2027, they aim to launch a fully autonomous, steering wheel- and pedal-free "CyberCab" for $30,000, with mass production lowering the price to around $25,000 (3.75 million yen).
Tesla’s current FSD 13.2.7 already has an accident rate ten times lower than human drivers and is reportedly five times safer than Waymo.
China started commercial robotaxi operations in 2019. Initially, a safety driver was required, but in April 2022, Beijing became the first city to allow fully driverless robotaxis.
Chinese automakers like BYD, Huawei, and Xiaomi are quickly catching up to Tesla, trailing only six months behind in self-driving technology.
Public Attitudes Toward Robotaxis (Nomura Research Institute Survey)
Country Willing to Use Unwilling to Use Unaware/Uninterested
Japan 23% 45% 32%
USA 32% 29% 39%
Germany 30% 27% 43%
China 79% 11% 10%
Indonesia 78% 5% 17%
Thailand 73% 15% 8%
This November 2023 survey shows that emerging markets (China, Indonesia, Thailand) are far more accepting of robotaxis, while advanced economies (Japan, the U.S., Germany) are more cautious. Japan, in particular, has the highest percentage (45%) of people unwilling to use robotaxis, with only 23% expressing interest—a striking contrast.
Tesla and China’s emerging automakers are investing trillions of yen annually to advance robotaxi technology, while Japan's investment is estimated to be only in the hundreds of millions to tens of billions—a 10,000x difference! If Japan's politicians, bureaucrats, and auto executives think they can compete under these conditions, they are completely delusional.
This makes me seriously worry about Japan’s future as a nation.