Japan, the world's slowest in artificial intelligence, will decline to the extreme limit.
I have come to deeply realize that there is no such thing as a perfect human being. Seeing Elon Musk's overly excited demeanor on the night before President Trump's inauguration... I was tremendously disappointed. The fact that Elon Musk, who donated 44.7 billion yen to support the Republican Party’s election campaign, may lose himself and go downhill seems highly likely.
In reality, Tesla's hardware performance is now significantly lagging behind new economy manufacturers like China's BYD. While Tesla remains at the forefront of AI development with its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology and may maintain a certain advantage for a while, the competition from Chinese companies is intense.
In China, emerging AI companies like DeepSeek are rapidly emerging. There are already five major unicorn companies competing with DeepSeek, and even more AI firms are appearing, much like the explosion of battery electric vehicle (BEV) startups in the past (about 400 companies). We must not forget that DeepSeek is open-source.
Tesla's FSD is currently the most advanced in the world, but looking ahead, China’s AI-powered autonomous vehicles are likely to surpass Tesla in terms of overall cost efficiency.
I had been looking forward to buying a Tesla, but now I don’t even want one anymore. In fact, there isn’t a single car or vehicle that I truly want anymore.
The Rapid Growth of China's New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Market
In 2024, the Chinese automobile market saw a record-breaking 31.436 million vehicle sales, a 4.5% increase year-on-year. Among these, New Energy Vehicles (EVs and PHVs) accounted for 40.9% of the total market, becoming a central force in the industry.
Why has China been able to spread NEVs so rapidly?
1. Trends in the Chinese Market
2024 Sales Figures: 31.436 million vehicles (+4.5% YoY)
Market Share of Chinese Brands: 65.2% (~20.49 million vehicles)
NEV Sales: 12.866 million units (+35.5% YoY)
PHV Growth: An astounding 83.3% increase YoY
2. Why Have NEVs Spread So Quickly?
Several factors have contributed to the rapid adoption of NEVs in China:
Affordable Pricing: Fierce competition among manufacturers has made NEVs more accessible to consumers.
Technological Advancements: Cutting-edge features such as Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and smart cockpits.
Diverse Offerings: In addition to EVs, PHVs and range-extender EVs are also gaining popularity.
3. The Global Position of Chinese and Japanese Automakers
Global Vehicle Sales in 2023: ~91.24 million
China’s Share of Global Sales: 35.5% (largest in the world)
Domestic Chinese Sales: 25.577 million (+1.6% YoY)
Chinese Vehicle Exports: 5.859 million (+19.3% YoY)
In other words, over one-third of the world's cars are now sold in China, further accelerating NEV adoption.
Meanwhile, in 2023, Japanese automakers produced about 26.19 million vehicles globally (including 17.51 million overseas and 8.678 million domestically), but NEVs accounted for less than 3%. Given the growing dominance of NEVs, it is highly likely that Chinese automakers will surpass Japanese automakers in total sales within a few years.
4. Future Predictions and Goals for Chinese Automakers
2025 New Car Sales Forecast: 32.9 million (+4.7% YoY)
NEV Share: 48.6% (~16 million vehicles)
Vehicle Exports: 6.2 million (+5.8% YoY)
Autonomous Driving Adoption: 65% of new cars will feature Level 2 or higher automation by 2025.
Furthermore, the Chinese government aims for NEVs to exceed 50% of total car sales by 2035. However, the current growth rate suggests this goal could be achieved nearly 10 years ahead of schedule. Even after subsidies are phased out, the market continues to expand.
Why has China been able to move so quickly? What measures would be necessary for Japan and other countries to catch up? Unfortunately, I fear that it may already be too late.
5. Key Questions to Consider
Why has China managed to spread NEVs so rapidly?
How can environmental considerations and technological innovation be leveraged effectively?
What steps must Japan and other countries take to regain competitiveness?
I do not like the way the Chinese government operates, nor do I want to buy a Tesla. Japanese cars? Even worse—they are too focused on safety at the expense of innovation, so I don’t want them either. In fact, I believe that Japanese automakers may follow the same fate as Japan’s consumer electronics industry, which failed because their products were 2-3 times more expensive despite offering the same performance.
With cars, the situation is even worse: they are the same price, yet only half or one-third as capable, making them outright dangerous. That is why they may eventually stop selling altogether. The only stylish Japanese car brand is Mazda, but I have concerns about its structural integrity.
However, I hope that China’s cutting-edge technology will quickly spread to Europe, enabling brands like Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi to implement Level 4 or higher autonomous driving with both state-of-the-art hardware and software.
That being said, we are also moving toward a society where owning a car is no longer necessary. What does the future hold? Given that Japan’s corporate culture—embodied by Fuji TV, large corporations, and Japanese society as a whole—is riddled with corruption, the outlook seems nothing short of grim.
Sigh…