An overwhelming difference in speed
Tesla's electric vehicle (BEV) manufacturing plant, "Gigafactory Shanghai," which began construction six years ago in January 2019, was completed and operational by the end of the year in just one year. As China's first fully foreign-funded automobile manufacturing plant, it garnered significant attention. Since then, Tesla has continued to take on new challenges at an astonishing pace.
Next came the construction of the "Shanghai Megafactory," which was completed in just seven months. This factory is set to commence operations on February 11, 2025, with plans to produce 10,000 Megapack energy storage batteries annually, achieving nearly 40GWh of storage capacity per year (equivalent to the daily electricity consumption of 3.65 million households).
Notably, this construction period is five months shorter than that of Gigafactory Shanghai, showcasing Tesla's remarkable speed. In contrast, Japanese manufacturers typically take more than three times the duration Tesla requires to build a factory, and even then, success is uncertain—if not impossible.
This massive factory is not only functional but also aesthetically designed, making it a true symbol of the future. Tesla's ability to complete projects at such an incredible speed exemplifies the essence of a "new economy company."
Tesla states that "the factory itself is the product." This concept is rooted in "first-principles thinking," a fundamental problem-solving approach. In fact, Tesla has rapidly operationalized a massive data center in Texas for AI development and has announced plans to invest trillions of yen to expand its data center capacity tenfold by 2025. This overwhelming speed and scale set Tesla apart from any other company.
Japan’s pride, Toyota, has partnered with NVIDIA in an effort to catch up in AI-driven autonomous driving. Toyota plans to develop its system through virtual AI-based driving simulations. However, such an approach is unlikely to effectively address real-world rare cases. Handling these rare cases safely without accidents is the most critical aspect of autonomous driving AI.
Currently, around ten companies worldwide have declared their entry into the autonomous taxi market. Waymo leads with approximately 9 million rides, followed by China’s Waymo-equivalent with around 3 million rides, and Pony.ai with about 200,000 rides. Other manufacturers have yet to make a significant impact.
However, when it comes to real-world autonomous driving data acquisition, Tesla stands overwhelmingly at the top with approximately 3.5 billion miles of collected data. In comparison, Waymo—the leader in autonomous taxis—has accumulated only 37 million miles, Baidu 16 million miles, and Pony.ai about 1 million miles.
The reason Tesla has not yet entered the autonomous robotaxi market despite its vast dataset is due to differences in autonomous driving systems. Tesla relies solely on camera-based vision for autonomous driving across various regions (where legal conditions are uniform), whereas other companies depend on digital maps, LiDAR, radar, sonar, and cameras tailored for limited geographic areas.
The disparity in value between Tesla's real-world data, collected from millions of vehicles in operation and analyzed through its in-house supercomputers, and the limited data sets of other companies is strikingly clear. Tesla plans to launch its robotaxi service first in Texas starting in June 2025.
Among traditional economy companies, none—besides Tesla—possess their own supercomputers, massive data centers, or real-world autonomous driving data at scale.
According to a study by major U.S. bank Wells Fargo, AI-related demand is expected to increase 217 times from 2023 to 2030. Given this projection, Tesla's leapfrogging advancements in AI place it on a highly anticipated path to the future.
On the other hand, looking at Japan, there are currently no companies capable of matching this speed. Additionally, there are virtually no significant AI development firms in Japan. The gap between Japan and Tesla is as stark as the difference between a soaring bird and a slug crawling on the ground.
Many of Japan’s pressing issues could be resolved with AI-driven autonomous driving, yet Japanese leaders have not even considered adopting it. The problem could be solved simply by purchasing Tesla’s technology—likely for around 7 to 8 trillion yen, equivalent to the amount spent on gasoline subsidies.
For Japan, an economy heavily reliant on the automotive industry, it is crucial to consider how this shift will impact its future and whether its "one-legged strategy" in automobiles can sustain itself. The best course of action would be to acknowledge defeat early and adapt swiftly to minimize damage.
It is essential to leapfrog to new heights by finding new value on top of AI-driven autonomous driving. Rather than competing for finite resources, Japan must focus on generating new, infinite value for the future.
At a time when we face serious challenges and a sense of despair for the future, it is an incredibly difficult issue for those of us living in a nation on a seemingly inevitable path of decline to decide what choices to make moving forward.