I am terrified of what will happen in five years!
Many so-called Japanese motor journalists frequently make outdated comments, and the following is one such example. It is a misleading statement stemming from a failure to understand the rapid evolution from AI to AGI and then to ASI. This individual is stuck in a mindset where they perceive time in ten-year increments, failing to grasp the current pace of progress, where even six months can feel like an era.
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The claim that "self-driving cars will soon be realized, so there’s no need to get a driver's license" is incorrect. The reality of autonomous driving technology is vastly different from the ideals and rumors surrounding it.
Tesla’s "Full Self-Driving (FSD)" remains at Level 2, which is still within the realm of driver assistance systems.
In the U.S. and China, unmanned taxis are largely part of social experiments, relying on remote monitoring systems where humans intervene in case of errors. High-precision 3D mapping and LiDAR are essential components of these systems.
Sony Honda Mobility announced in January 2023 that they would launch their vehicle in 2025. However, their "AFEELA," set for release in 2026, will feature an advanced driver assistance system with more than 40 sensors but will still only be at Level 3—far from fully autonomous driving (Level 5).
To achieve full autonomy, vehicles must function reliably even in adverse weather conditions, necessitating redundancy through LiDAR, radar, and other sensors. However, the extensive use of such sensors raises vehicle costs, creating a barrier to widespread adoption.
The realization of fully autonomous driving (Level 5), where anyone can safely use a vehicle without a license, is still a long way off.
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Tesla’s AI robotaxi, set to launch in 2026, will have neither a steering wheel nor pedals. Even if one wanted to drive it, there would simply be no way to do so.
To borrow the words of Elon Musk, the current transformation can be described as follows:
"Accurately predicting the future is impossible. It’s like simultaneously creating an entire railway system—including the trains, tracks, stations, and operational infrastructure—from almost zero. There’s no way to know the exact schedule in advance."
Furthermore, the pace of evolution from AI to AGI to ASI will undoubtedly follow an exponential curve. While linear projections can provide a rough future outlook, exponential growth is highly unpredictable, as even a single parameter can drastically alter its trajectory. Motor journalists who misinterpret this exponential nature of progress risk making significant miscalculations about the future.
Sadly, as of today, Japan has virtually no cutting-edge technologies that surpass global competition in key future fields.
Japanese corporate leaders talk about this transition as the "once-in-a-century shift from horse-drawn carriages to automobiles." Yet, in reality, they are obsessively developing carriages, pouring all their efforts into perfecting them—an utterly tragic situation.
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